Market History – Putting Perspective on Bear Markets, Corrections and Recessions
In light of this year’s quick drop in the stock market, it’s worth repeating a few statistics on the stock market (courtesy of the people at S&P). Remember, this is only history and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. As a point of reference, a bear market is defined as a drop in the overall market of 20% or more. (note: the overall market is usually measured by the S&P 500 - made up of 500 widely held US Company stocks). A market correction is a market drop of between 10% and 20%.
- The S&P 500 has lost 5.3% in the first five days of 2008. That’s the benchmark’s worst first five days, topping the 5.2% loss at the start of 1932 (courtesy of the people at S&P).
- In 1991, the S&P jumped 26.3% for the year despite falling 4.6% in the first five days.
- Bear Market Facts:
- Number of bear markets since 1928 (80 years): 23
- Average market drop: more than 33%
- Average number of days to drop that amount: 490 - (15 months)
- Average number of days for the market to recover back to the previous market high: 669 (22 months)
- Number of bear markets since 1946 (62 years): 10
- Statistics for the last 10 bear markets:
- Number of bear markets since 1928 (80 years): 23
- Number of corrections since 1928: 87 - or more than 1 per year on average
- Number of corrections since 1946: 16 - or about 1 every 3 1/2 or 4 years
- Statistics for the last 16 corrections:
- Average market drop: 15%
- Average number of days to drop that amount: 148 - (less than 5 months)
- Average number of days for the market to recover back to the previous market high: 111 (less than 4 months)
Recession Period 6 Mo. before During 6 Mo. After
12/1969-11/1970 -8.9% -11.3% 20.5%
11/1973-3/1975 1.1 -24.7 6.5
1/1980-11/1980 5.8 5.8 18.8
7/1981-11/1982 -3.8 1.9 23.0
7/1990-3/1991 -0.5 2.5 7.7
3/2001-11/2001 -18.3 -8.1 -6.3
As you can see, a recession does not have a consistent impact on the markets. Market performance ranges from severe to benign.
