A Week in the Rearview – week ending 5/15/09
In the headlines
A look at some of the market movers over the past week:
- Chipmaker Intel was hit with a huge antitrust fine from the EU
- To help raise capital, Bank of America sold its stake in China Construction Bank
- A group of banks is preparing to pay back TARP loans
- It will likely be a long, tough road ahead for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
- Citigroup’s Primerica Financial Services has been talking to potential private equity buyers
- The US Treasury prepared to release its picks for managers of the public-private investment partnership
- It appears that the Treasury may have been more than a little forceful in getting banks to agree to TARP
- Former Countrywide head Angelo Mozilo may be in the SEC’s sights
- Chrysler set out to eliminate roughly one quarter of its dealerships
Commentary
After a rocking week on the market last week, investors showed more caution this week. Four out of the five days of the week were down days and the S&P 500 index finished the week off 5.0%. This brings the year-to-date performance to a 2.3% loss, though the index is still up 30.5% since March’s low.
What caused the pullback? In large part it was two items. On Wednesday, retail sales numbers for April were released. Because of the huge impact that consumer spending has on the US economy, this was bound to be a closely watched number, and unfortunately it came in below expectations.
Ahead of the release the market was anticipating sales to be flat overall after a 1.3% drop in March. The market expected a positive 0.2% performance from retail sales excluding automobiles. With total retail sales coming in down 0.4% and retail sales ex-autos down 0.5%, it shouldn’t be too surprising that the market was upset.
Perhaps the bigger, and certainly the more amorphous, concern facing investors during the week was the fate of the market’s rally since the March lows. Investors seem to be split, with one side claiming that recent economic and earnings data suggest a near-term end to the recession and the other side suggesting that stock prices have run up too far given the yet-murky outlook for the economy.
Looking ahead
Earnings releases will continue to flood the newswires this week, and as I’ve pointed out in previous weeks, investors seem to have largely made up their minds on the overall earnings season results. However, after the retail sales report this past week, along with a less-than-inspiring report from Wal-Mart, earnings announcements from retail players such as Lowe’s and Target may take on greater significance. There has also been a lot of talk about tech companies helping to drive markets higher, so it may be worth keeping an eye on releases from tech companies like Hewlett-Packard and NetApp.
Don’t expect too much from next week’s economic calendar. Housing starts, initial unemployment claims, and, to a lesser extent, leading indicators, will get some attention. The minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve rate-setting meeting will likely be the most watched economic event of the week, though even this has lost some of its market moving power due to the high level of day-to-day communication from the Fed. Overall, though, economic reports are unlikely to be the focus of the week.
Banks will continue to take up their share of headlines as they continue to try to sell the market on their stability. Expect to see some more talk about capital raises as well as further posturing over TARP and certain banks’ ability to pay back their TARP loans.
But what we’re likely to hear a lot more of is continued discussion over the state of the market and whether it will need to take a “breather” after its run-up. There is plenty of economic and earnings data that could be used to argue either side of the coin, so don’t expect analysts and commentators to come to any firm conclusions.
However, it appears that just the fact that the discussion is taking place has been injecting a bit more caution into the markets, so we could see markets flat to down again next week as investors try to establish their bearings.
