A Week in the Rearview – week ending 11/27/09
In the headlines
A look at some of the market movers over the past week:
- Dubai’s government-controlled investment company Dubai World shook world markets by asking for a stay on its debt payments
- Spending on “Black Friday” edged up from 2008
- Standard & Poor’s cautioned about capital adequacy at the world’s banks
- The National Association for Business Economists boosted its growth forecast for 2010
- Rumors started circulating that JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon could be a potential successor for Timothy Geithner at Treasury Secretary
- The healthcare reform bill received enough votes to go to debate on the Senate floor
- Research suggests that nearly one out of four American mortgages are underwater
- The Federal Reserve has asked stress-tested banks for plans to repay government aid
- Existing home sales rose more than expected
- Research firm Gartner now expects PC shipments to rise 2.8% in 2009, up from an expectation of a 2% drop, but sees PC revenue falling 11%
- The Fed officials expect to keep interest rates near zero for an extended period despite risks
- U.S. GDP growth for the third quarter was revised down from 3.5% to 2.8%
- Consumer confidence in November rose above October’s level
Commentary
The S&P 500 index fell slightly in a holiday-shortened week. After a 1.4% gain on Monday, the market fell two of the remaining three days of the week, finishing on Friday with a 2.1% drop. The S&P index is now up 20% year-to-date and 61% from its March low.
Though the expectation was for a quiet week due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, the announcement that the Dubai government is trying to restructure debt at its investment company, Dubai World, brought some unwelcome excitement. Fueled by the boom in oil prices, Dubai World had invested in massive projects at home and abroad, including the multi-billion dollar CityCenter project in Las Vegas.
As world-wide recession set in, oil prices fell, and credit tightened, things have gone downhill for Dubai World. That set the stage for the Dubai government’s request for a standstill on Dubai World’s some $60 billion in debt, including some bonds that are due in December.
The news rocked overseas markets as investors began assessing bank exposure to Dubai World. At the same time, investors raised caution over other heavily-indebted countries like Greece. The pessimism reached the U.S. on Friday, but had a muted effect as U.S. banks were seen to have limited exposure to Dubai World.
In somewhat more positive news at week end, Black Friday sales in U.S. climbed versus 2008, suggesting that consumers could be opening their wallets again. Preliminary sales numbers showed spending at $10.7 billion, a 0.5% gain from last year. While online sales made up a relatively small portion of total sales, early reports suggested that online spending grew much faster.
Looking ahead
Earnings reports will continue into next week, but the schedule will be much lighter as the third quarter earnings season wraps up.
The economic calendar will carry much more weight in the coming week with November wrapping up on Monday. The Institute of Supply Management Index will come out on Tuesday along with pending home sales and auto sales. Wednesday will bring the ADP employment report and the Fed’s Beige Book report. The week will wrap up on Thursday and Friday with a flood of employment data including initial unemployment claims, the average workweek, hourly earnings, and the unemployment rate.
Not surprisingly, the unemployment rate and the related ADP employment report will likely be the most important reports of the week, as the market has been particularly concerned over employment trends in the economy. The Fed’s Beige Book report could also make some waves as it gives the Federal Reserve’s perspective on the major sectors of the U.S. economy.
But while there will be plenty of new economic info flooding the U.S. market’s the situation in Dubai will likely be a big overhang on the U.S. and worldwide markets in the beginning of the week. Debt and equity investors will be busy trying to figure out just how dire Dubai World’s situation is and what kind of impact it could have on financial companies exposed to its debt. At the same time, there will likely be a good deal of debate over whether the woes at Dubai World are a harbinger of financial troubles yet to come in other parts of the world.
