SmartUpdate Market News – Week Ending 1/13/12
In the headlines
A look at some of the market movers from the week:
- Bristol-Myers Squibb agreed to buy Inhibitex for $2.5 billion
- U.S.-Iran tensions mounted amid concerns over the country’s nuclear program
- As it kicked off fourth-quarter earnings season Alcoa had an optimistic outlook
- Electronics companies showed off their wares at Las Vegas’ Consumer Electronics Show
- Global auto makers strutted their stuff at the Detroit auto show
- Fitch urged the European Central bank to head off a cataclysmic euro collapse by buying more Eurozone debt
- German GDP shrank in the fourth quarter
- Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney became the first non-incumbent Republican to win primaries in both Iowa and New Hampshire
- Chevron warned that fourth-quarter earnings would be softer than expected
- CIT Group cut off financing to Sears’ suppliers
- The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report showed resumed moderate growth
- A prohibited fungicide was found in imports of orange juice
- Siemens and Philips both warned about lower earnings
- Consumer credit surged
- Retail sales grew much more slowly than expected
Commentary
So far so good. Through the close of trading on Thursday, the S&P 500 was continuing to treat investors well for 2012. After the index closed roughly flat for 2011, it has tacked on 3% so far in the new year. In the week-to-Thursday, the S&P had added 1.4% after reporting gains in all of the first four trading days of the week.
The gains came despite some notable economic disappointments on Thursday as retail sales were reported to have grown just 0.1% in December, while retail sales excluding auto sales fell 0.2%. Economists were anticipating total growth of 0.4% and ex-auto growth of 0.3%. The data is a significant disappointment as the U.S. economy leans heavily on consumers. Should their pace of purchasing continue to slow, that could drag down the entire economy.
Also on Thursday, initial unemployment claims jumped to 399,000 from 375,000 in the previous week. It was expected that claims would stay at the 375,000 level. While this is a concerning increase, it’s notable that unemployment claims tend to be volatile from week to week, so it’s best to look at a longer progression.
So with those disappointments in front of investors, what was it that was sending stocks higher? Surprisingly, Alcoa. At the end of last week, Alcoa preempted its earnings-season-starting financial report by telling investors that its results would be worse than previously expected. When the company officially announced results though, as is often the case, investors were far more focused on the company’s outlook than its previous results — and the outlook was distinctly positive. Aluminum is a widely-used metal associated with global growth and economic health, so Alcoa’s view that demand is strong reasonably encouraged investors on the broader economic outlook.
The following day, the Federal Reserve bolstered the positive sentiment with its Beige Book report — a region-by-region run-down of the U.S. economy. The central bank said that reports from the 12 Fed districts showed “modest to moderate” growth. By contrast, in the previous report, the Fed described growth as “slow to moderate.” In particular, New York and Chicago noted a pickup in the pace of growth.
In Europe, the concerns over the debt crisis affecting the region’s economy was underscored when Germany reported a 0.25% drop in GDP for the fourth quarter. For all of 2011, the country managed a peppy 3% growth pace, but the fourth-quarter results may show that the crisis is beginning to put a serious drag on even the strongest of the European Union’s economies. Balancing out the news from Germany was Fitch’s reiteration that it won’t downgrade France’s AAA rating. The credit-rating agency confirmed that it does not see France as a country in crisis.
Finally, just as we thought that the European Union was our biggest overseas risk, Iran has been making serious waves. The U.S. has been increasingly concerned over the possibility of nuclear weapons in Iran and that’s led to mounting tensions between the two countries. To date, the primary escalation appears to be rhetoric, but investors may want to keep an eye on developments in that showdown.
Looking ahead
Don’t expect much action next Monday — the U.S. markets will be closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. When the markets reopen on Tuesday though, earnings season will be in full swing.
After the typical slow start to reports hitting the wires, next week will start the onslaught of earnings reports for the fourth-quarter reporting period. On Tuesday, major reports will include Citigroup, Delta Air Lines, M&T Bank, and Wells Fargo. Wednesday will feature Bank of New York Mellon, Charles Schwab, eBay, and US Bancorp.
Thursday will be particularly active, bringing AMD, American Express, Bank of America, Capital One, Freeport McMoRan, Google, Intel, IBM, Johnson Controls, Microsoft, Morgan Stanley, Southwest Airlines, Union Pacific, and UnitedHealth. Finally, the week will close on Friday with General Electric, Schlumberger, and SunTrust Banks.
In addition, there will be a few notable economic reports during the week. In the front half of the week investors should keep an eye out for the Empire Manufacturing report, the Producer Price Index, and industrial production growth. In the second half of the week, key reports include initial unemployment claims, the Consumer Price Index, housing starts, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing report, and existing home sales.
While the above should be more than enough to keep investors hopping during the week, it’ll also be important to keep a close watch on developments overseas and in particular in the European Union and Iran.
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